OK,

I just love an excuse to party <g>.

Honestly though - This is what is likely to happen:

There will be a flury of increased violence and fighting, as internal squabbles within Al Qaeda are settled, and Al Qaeda tries to reinforce it's credibility, and appearance of commitment to the great Jihad internationally.

Then, following a period of about six months, Al Qaeda will start to lose momentum, and be replaced, ever so subtly, with a more nationalist, secular orientation (This has already started with Zawahiri) . This could take years.

Eventually, Al Qaeda will be marginalized, and have a following not unlike that of the White supremicists in America today - Mostly, they will be remembered 50 years from now, inside of Islam, and outside as well, as a movement that slaughtered 100s of thousands - As a waste. 

Tim

Toe-Ga!  Toe-Ga!  Toe-Ga!

>But bin Laden abstained from alcohol, so the wake is likely to be deadly dull.  <

Probably true - But I wouldn't bet on it.

Many of the "Martyrs" engage in earthly lusts as a reward, and taste of the pleasures to come in the after-life.

They are actually a Hashashin cult, but of course, that is another story entirely.

Within Islamic extremism one will find a dramatic divergence between what the leaders of the movement are, and what they claim to be.  It can be assured that there are many in Guantanamo who, had they known what a fraud Al Qaeda was, never would have gotten miixed up with them.

By the way,

There are scenarios one could imagine in which Bin Laden could have died, but the news was concealed, they involve-

1) Fears about a resulting Al Qaeda power strugggle that could destabilize the organization.

2) The desire to stage a holy exit by attempting to transport the body to Mecca, or Temple Mount.

3) Fears that the body would be captured and put on display.

4) Concern that if the body surfaced in say, rural Yemen, the Allies might fire a bunch of people, get their act together, and really give Al Qaeda a run for it's money.

None of these is very likely however.

Then, of course, there is the one admittedly way out in left field-

The fear that a bunch of Army doctors will get their mitts on the body, do an autopsy, and discover-

"My goodness - This guy had been a drinker for years!"

Fascists are almost never what they appear to be - There were senior members of the Nazi party who were gay, and a few that are commonly accepted to have great-grandparent level Jewish heritage.

Of course, I don't strongly suspect that Bin Laden is a drinker, but I do suspect this:

Osama Bin Laden is almost certainly a "stoner" - He has a lack of affect commonly associated with opiates, and on occasion in his video appearances, even seems to be on the verge of what is known in drug addiction as "Nodding".

My guess is that Bin Laden is an opium addict, and has been for years.