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Message Area
The Economy

Recession Over, But Unemployment Jumps

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#1 of 152

     Posted Nov-6 9:37 AM   
Sysop Alex Krislov
 
From  Sysop Alex Krislov  Posts 19632  Last 12:33 AM
To  All      [Msg # 213518.1 ]    

The recession is officially over.  Still, it doesn't feel that way to those who are out of work, and the percentage of people out of work is now officially over 10%, a figure that hasn't been seen in the United States since the middle of Ronald Reagan's first term as president.

According to an AP article on today's Netscape News:

Nearly 16 million people can't find jobs even though the worst recession since the Great Depression has apparently ended. The Labor Department said Friday that the economy shed a net total of 190,000 jobs in October, less than the downwardly revised 219,000 lost in September. August job losses were also revised lower, to 154,000 from 201,000.

Will it be getting better soon?  It doesn't look likely.  As the article notes:

Friday's report is the first since the government said last week that the economy grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter, the strongest signal yet that the economy is rebounding. But that isn't fast enough to spur rapid hiring, raising the specter of a jobless recovery.

``You need explosive growth to take the unemployment rate down,'' said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for New York-based investment firm Miller Tabak & Co.
   See this link for more.

How do you feel about the official definitions of "recession?"  Is it valid to speak of the recession being "over" when job losses continue to rise?

How can the government address the problem?  Is the unemployment rate the government's fault in the first place?

Tell us what you think!


Alex
Books & Writers Community
Political Debate Forum
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#2 of 152

     Posted Nov-6 10:10 AM   
Michael H.
 
From  Michael H.  Posts 3447  Last 5:29 AM
To  Sysop Alex Krislov      [Msg # 213518.2 Message 213518.2 replying to 213518.1 213518.1 ]    
>> How do you feel about the official definitions of "recession?"  Is it valid to speak of the recession being "over" when job losses continue to rise? <<

Recessions aren't defined by unemployment figures, so strictly speaking, yes, it is.

Unfortunately unemployment is a lagging indicator which means that even though the recession may be over there will likely be high unemployment for a while to come.


"You have absolutely no reason, none,
to trust our words or our actions at this point."

Michael Steele
Chairman of the
Republican National Committee
Feb 13th, 2009
Free Your Mind.
Free Yourself.
Ferrapontifex Invictus

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#3 of 152

     Posted Nov-6 10:11 AM   
HonestTrader
 
From  HonestTrader  Posts 19  Last Nov-9
To  Sysop Alex Krislov      [Msg # 213518.3 Message 213518.3 replying to 213518.1 213518.1 ]    

You'd have to be a fool to think the recession is anywhere near over.  The government doesn't cause recessions and the government can't fix them either.  The market will have its way.  We can drop all the money in the country into a big sieve and have the same affect on the economy that we're having right now.

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#4 of 152

     Posted Nov-6 10:20 AM   
Martin Alter
 
From  Martin Alter  Posts 5484  Last Nov-24
To  HonestTrader      [Msg # 213518.4 Message 213518.4 replying to 213518.3 213518.3 ]    (Unread)
>>   You'd have to be a fool to think the recession is anywhere near over.  The government doesn't cause recessions and the government can't fix them either.  The market will have its way.   <<

Then here's the first question.  Did the economy grow, as reported?  And the second question, are you prepared to change the accepted definition of a recession?

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#5 of 152

     Posted Nov-6 10:20 AM   
Raven
 
From  Raven  Posts 99  Last Nov-22
To  HonestTrader      [Msg # 213518.5 Message 213518.5 replying to 213518.3 213518.3 ]    (Unread)
<The market will have its way.>

Thank you for a voice of reason. I take it you have seriously studied basic economics. It is true that, like water, the economy will find it's own level. All the meddling in the world won't change that fact. In fact, meddling, in many instances just exacerbates problems. It is also political posturing for any administration to claim they "rescued" the economy, when in fact, they did no such thing.




The people may be made to follow a path of action, but they may not be made to understand it.
                  Confucius
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#6 of 152

     Posted Nov-6 10:36 AM   
bwalsh60
 
From  bwalsh60  Posts 7115  Last 5:01 AM
To  Sysop Alex Krislov      [Msg # 213518.6 Message 213518.6 replying to 213518.1 213518.1 ]    

>>>>How do you feel about the official definitions of "recession?"  Is it valid to speak of the recession being "over" when job losses continue to rise?<<<<

Acording to the people in the Federal reserve... it is not close to being over!

>>>  Is the unemployment rate the government's fault in the first place?<<<

of course it is!Bush and Congress screwed up so badly and forced the banks to make tose ridiculous loans!

Guess what? They are still trying to do it still!

I got a call from some guy wanting to refinance my house with no income verification... bad credit would be allowed and offering to loan me 110% of what the value of the house was.

 

SMH

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#7 of 152

     Posted Nov-6 10:42 AM   
joanna123jn
 
From  joanna123jn  Posts 9038  Last Nov-24
To  bwalsh60      [Msg # 213518.7 Message 213518.7 replying to 213518.6 213518.6 ]    

I got a call from some guy wanting to refinance my house with no income verification... bad credit would be allowed and offering to loan me 110% of what the value of the house was.

Oh good grief.  When will it end?  At least you weren't stupid enough to fall for it.

 

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#8 of 152

     Posted Nov-6 10:46 AM   
bwalsh60
 
From  bwalsh60  Posts 7115  Last 5:01 AM
To  joanna123jn      [Msg # 213518.8 Message 213518.8 replying to 213518.7 213518.7 ]    

>>>>Oh good grief.  When will it end?  At least you weren't stupid enough to fall for it.<<<

I told him I did not qualify since my credit was good. Then I hung up! LOL

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#9 of 152

     Posted Nov-6 10:55 AM   
joanna123jn
 
From  joanna123jn  Posts 9038  Last Nov-24
To  bwalsh60      [Msg # 213518.9 Message 213518.9 replying to 213518.8 213518.8 ]    

I told him I did not qualify since my credit was good. Then I hung up! LOL

Good for you.  I screen every call that comes in before I answer the phone.  I will not fall for any of their silly nonsense.  My credit is good too and I intend to keep it that way.  The crooks have enough money as it is and they're not getting any of mine. 

 

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#10 of 152

     Posted Nov-6 11:07 AM   
John Clifton (Sysop)
 
From  John Clifton (Sysop)  Posts 23916  Last Nov-24
To  Martin Alter      [Msg # 213518.10 Message 213518.10 replying to 213518.4 213518.4 ]    
<HT> You'd have to be a fool to think the recession is anywhere near over.  The government doesn't cause recessions and the government can't fix them either.  The market will have its way.

<MA> Then here's the first question.  Did the economy grow, as reported?  And the second question, are you prepared to change the accepted definition of a recession?


Yes, the economy grew 3% and the recession may have ended--for now. We'll have to see if it has ended for good.

Right now, the Fed is financing much of our budget deficit. Interest rates will have to rise for government to get anyone much interested in taking its debt and we'll see how the economy responds. It won't be good for residential housing and big ticket purchases financed with credit.

The upshot for unemployment... it won't get better any time soon.

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#11 of 152

     Posted Nov-6 11:20 AM   
John Clifton (Sysop)
 
From  John Clifton (Sysop)  Posts 23916  Last Nov-24
To  bwalsh60      [Msg # 213518.11 Message 213518.11 replying to 213518.6 213518.6 ]    
<bw> I got a call from some guy wanting to refinance my house with no income verification... bad credit would be allowed and offering to loan me 110% of what the value of the house was.

Hmmmm.... let's see. The Fed is "printing money" through its purchases of government debt, holding down interest rates as Bush did a few years ago.... still not much regulation of lending..... About the only difference today is the crooks are having a harder time getting their hands on the cash to start a new bubble as it's still difficult to float collateralized debt.

We're heading toward the Demos' Moment of Truth where they'll have to slash these huge budget deficits, much of "pain" coming in the form of reduced spending, and this with $50 trillion (and growing!) of unfunded promises for Social Security and Medicare. I don't think they can convince their liberal supporters the cuts are necessary. Will they even try? We'll see.


Edited Nov-6   by  John Clifton (Sysop)
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#12 of 152

     Posted Nov-6 12:44 PM   
Martin Alter
 
From  Martin Alter  Posts 5484  Last Nov-24
To  John Clifton (Sysop)      [Msg # 213518.12 Message 213518.12 replying to 213518.10 213518.10 ]    
>>   Yes, the economy grew 3% and the recession may have ended--for now. We'll have to see if it has ended for good.  <<

Fair enough. 

>>  
Right now, the Fed is financing much of our budget deficit. Interest rates will have to rise for government to get anyone much interested in taking its debt and we'll see how the economy responds. It won't be good for residential housing and big ticket purchases financed with credit.  <<

Probably correct and a case can be made that the Fed didn't pump enough money into the stimulus packages.

>>   T
he upshot for unemployment... it won't get better any time soon.  <<

I think that's the commonly accepted view at the moment.  It's probably quite correct.
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#13 of 152

     Posted Nov-6 12:58 PM   
John Clifton (Sysop)
 
From  John Clifton (Sysop)  Posts 23916  Last Nov-24
To  Martin Alter      [Msg # 213518.13 Message 213518.13 replying to 213518.12 213518.12 ]    
<JC> Right now, the Fed is financing much of our budget deficit. Interest rates will have to rise for government to get anyone much interested in taking its debt and we'll see how the economy responds. It won't be good for residential housing and big ticket purchases financed with credit.

<MA> Probably correct and a case can be made that the Fed didn't pump enough money into the stimulus packages.


The Federal Reserve can't do much more than soak up government debt to keep interest rates low.

Banks are holding on to the money the Fed is giving them, so the velocity of money is quite low.

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#14 of 152

     Posted Nov-6 1:11 PM   
Martin Alter
 
From  Martin Alter  Posts 5484  Last Nov-24
To  John Clifton (Sysop)      [Msg # 213518.14 Message 213518.14 replying to 213518.13 213518.13 ]    
>>   The Federal Reserve can't do much more than soak up government debt to keep interest rates low.

Banks are holding on to the money the Fed is giving them, so the velocity of money is quite low.  <<

I'm aware of that.  And I haven't argued that the economy is in good shape.  I pointed out that there are classic definitions of what is or is not a recession and the 3% and change in growth does not fit that definition of a recession.  No more, no less.
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#15 of 152

     Posted Nov-6 9:10 AM   
Cassandra
 
From  Cassandra  Posts 294  Last Nov-23
To  All      [Msg # 213518.15 Message 213518.15 replying to 213518.1 213518.1 ]    

Good thing we passed that stimulus package to keep unemployment below 8%. Maybe everyone will start realizing that this moron in the White House hasn't a clue.

Somewhere in Kenya a village is missing their idiot


" All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do  nothing. " - Edmund Burke
Edited Nov-6   by  Cassandra
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#16 of 152

     Posted Nov-6 10:03 AM   
Raven
 
From  Raven  Posts 99  Last Nov-22
To  Cassandra      [Msg # 213518.16 Message 213518.16 replying to 213518.15 213518.15 ]    
Also, he is going to have to get real busy coming up with 10 million new jobs, in order to keep his promise of creating 3-5 million new jobs! And none of this unprovable "We saved #### jobs" baloney. He is so full of lies and it is sad that so many people still bleat for him.




The people may be made to follow a path of action, but they may not be made to understand it.
                  Confucius
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Message 213518.17 was moved to 213525.1

#18 of 152

     Posted Nov-6 11:48 AM   
Cassandra
 
From  Cassandra  Posts 294  Last Nov-23
To  Raven      [Msg # 213518.18 Message 213518.18 replying to 213518.16 213518.16 ]    
Also, he is going to have to get real busy coming up with 10 million new jobs, in order to keep his promise of creating 3-5 million new jobs!


It's not like we weren't warned about his lack of experience. We really needed a President that knew had runs things other than his mouth.


 
" All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do  nothing. " - Edmund Burke
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#19 of 152

     Posted Nov-6 11:51 AM   
joanna123jn
 
From  joanna123jn  Posts 9038  Last Nov-24
To  Cassandra      [Msg # 213518.19 Message 213518.19 replying to 213518.18 213518.18 ]    (Unread)

 We really needed a President that knew had runs things other than his mouth.

Yep.....That's why the majority of Americans replaced him.

 

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#20 of 152

     Posted Nov-6 12:01 PM   
esther
 
From  esther  Posts 5641  Last Nov-24
To  Cassandra      [Msg # 213518.20 Message 213518.20 replying to 213518.18 213518.18 ]    (Unread)
c - It's not like we weren't warned about his lack of experience. We really needed a President that knew had runs things other than his mouth.

es - And explain to us what you think John McCain would have done to create more jobs.
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The Economy

Recession Over, But Unemployment Jumps

  
 
     
 
 

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